Prediction markets

Prediction markets are platforms where people trade contracts based on their forecasts or predictions of future events and their outcomes.

What Are Crypto Prediction Markets?

Crypto prediction markets differ from traditional ones mainly because they operate on decentralized platforms without a central authority. Unlike conventional markets that rely on intermediaries, decentralized prediction markets use smart contracts to conduct transactions securely and transparently. This decentralization aims to make forecasts more transparent and trustworthy and thus, more reliable.

How Decentralized Prediction Markets Work

Decentralized prediction markets use Hashed TimeLock Contracts (HTLC) to secure transactions by releasing funds only when specific conditions are met.

Platforms such as Augur and Polymarket allow users to predict outcomes of events like elections and cryptocurrency prices by trading shares or placing bets. These market platforms claim that the collective insights of their users result in more accurate forecasts, which can also include predictions about the latest web3 narratives, news cycles, trends, or even memes and culture-related phenomena.

In decentralized prediction markets, all transactions are transparently recorded on the blockchain, thus ensuring full visibility. HTLCs and smart contracts enhance security by reducing fraud risks – they are accessible to anyone with internet access and cryptocurrency – and users are incentivized to make accurate predictions as they are putting real assets on the line.

Decentralized prediction markets could improve how we forecast events in the future by combining blockchain technology with traditional prediction methods.