EP - 88

Bitcoin $100k Reactions, 2024 Crypto Recap and 2025 Predictions

with

Ian Rogers, Charles Guillemet & Seth Hertlein
CXO, CTO & Head of Global Policy @ Ledger

Dec 11, 2024

2024 was a pivotal year in crypto. Bitcoin hit $100K. Elections around the world put the industry back in the spotlight and set up for what could be an even bigger year in 2025.

On this episode of The Ledger Podcast, Ledger Chief Experience Officer Ian Rogers, CTO Charles Guillemet, and Head of Global Policy Seth Hertlein delve into the transformative shifts experienced by the crypto world in 2024, offering expert analysis on the historic year along with thoughtful predictions for 2025.

Key Highlights:

From “Persona Non Grata” to Welcome at the Party

“It feels like crypto is legal again.” – Ian Rogers

The year 2024 marked a pivotal shift for crypto, moving from being viewed as “for criminals and drug dealers” to being recognized as a hedge against inflation and a positive force for individuals. Bitcoin’s “exciting climb towards 100K” in 2024, driven partly by the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, was a major highlight. However, the SEC didn’t willingly embrace these products—they were compelled by federal courts after Grayscale’s successful litigation challenging regulatory inconsistency. While $100K BTC became a “symbol” within the community, its true significance lies in signaling that Bitcoin is “here to stay” and cannot be overlooked by institutions that once hoped it would simply disappear.

A New Regulatory Frontier: US Leadership and Self-Custody’s Moment

The global political landscape also saw significant shifts in 2024, with elections in the EU, UK, and particularly the US. Seth observed a surprising synchronization in voter sentiment globally, with right-leaning movements gaining ground across democratic nations. The US election outcome, which saw Donald Trump win on a pro-crypto platform, is expected to bring about major changes, starting with personnel changes on January 20th. The US is forecasted to pass pro-crypto legislation in 2025 or 2026, likely focusing on stablecoin regulation and market structure, and crucially, formally recognizing the right to self-custody for the first time in US law.

“Our moment has arrived.” – Seth Hertlein

Enhanced Security: Protecting Against Sophisticated Attacks

The flipside of rapidly increasing on-chain value is that it makes crypto owners a bigger target for malicious actors. The complexity explosion—more L2s, more block space, more sophisticated smart contract interactions—has fundamentally changed how users interact with blockchain technology. Where early crypto involved simple send-and-receive transactions, users now execute complex smart contracts worth billions of dollars.

Charles predicted that 2025 could see the “biggest attacks in the history for blockchain technology,” potentially reaching billions of dollars. His reasoning: as defenses get better, attackers are forced “up the stack” to more sophisticated methods, and when potential payoffs reach nine figures, attackers will invest proportionally more resources based on opportunity cost analysis.

Ledger’s new devices, Ledger Stax and Ledger Flex, play a critical role here, offering larger screens for users to understand and consent to complex smart contract transactions—a necessity when billions are at stake. The team also launched the Keyring Protocol to enhance privacy for users. These devices also serve as authentication devices using the FIDO2 standard, allowing users to secure their online accounts with cryptographic keys, extending Ledger’s utility “beyond just crypto”.

“When I show [people] the new devices and explain some of the new capabilities, they start to see them and us as something more than just crypto.” – Seth Hertlein

Key Predictions for 2025

Charles

- Memecoins will be “really, really big,” potentially defining the narrative of the current cycle, much like NFTs did in the last cycle.

- States will adopt Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, leading to a “big supply shock” as the limited supply meets increased demand from nation-states.

- Continued growth in Zero-Knowledge (ZK) technology.

- The challenge of fragmentation in the Ethereum space due to L2s.

Read Charles’ full list of predictions in his 2025 preview blog.

Seth

- The US will lead in pro-crypto legislation, potentially followed by a “race” among other nations if the US adopts Bitcoin as a strategic reserve.

- A rollback of litigation and enforcement against reputable Web3 companies and withdrawal of anti-crypto regulatory proposals due to personnel changes.