How Many Bitcoin Are Lost? | Ledger

As we move forward towards a more prosperous and decentralized Bitcoin-friendly world, there’s no doubt that the blockchain is for everyone. But without knowing the basics of how it all works and how to secure your crypto assets, you’ll be taking shots in the dark with each transaction you sign. But there are other ways funds get lost even beyond signing malicious contracts—its called human negligence.

Have you ever heard of James Howells? The British IT engineer accidentally lost his hard drive with 8,000 Bitcoins—now worth over $700 million—when his partner threw it away in 2013. Despite his latest plan to buy and search the Welsh landfill where it ended up, the odds of finding it are less than winning the lottery many times over.

What about the tragic tale of Stefan Thomas, an entrepreneur who cannot access his Bitcoin because he forgot the password to his IronKey hard drive, which holds the private keys to his wallet. Poor Stefan has only two attempts left before the drive permanently encrypts itself, locking him out forever.

Estimating the Number of Lost Bitcoin

As of early 2025, analysts estimate that between 2.3 million and 3.7 million Bitcoins are permanently lost, representing approximately 11–18% of Bitcoin’s fixed maximum supply of 21 million coins, with some reports suggesting losses as high as 4 million BTC. This impacts the effective circulating supply—while the total mined Bitcoin stands at around 19.8 million BTC, the usable amount is closer to 15.8–17.5 million BTC after accounting for these losses, highlighting a significant reduction in accessible coins despite the unchanged maximum supply of 21 million BTC.

But what does that mean, exactly? How can Bitcoin be lost? Today, let’s tackle this phenomenon and help you understand how Bitcoin really works. 

What Exactly Does “Lost” Bitcoin Mean?

Bitcoin can indeed be “lost,” but this doesn’t mean it disappears entirely—instead, it becomes permanently inaccessible. This happens when a user loses, forgets, or destroys their private key, a unique secret code that serves as the only way to access and spend their Bitcoin.

Without this key, the Bitcoin remains locked on the blockchain, a decentralized public ledger that records all transactions. Unlike traditional banking systems where a lost password might be reset by a central authority, Bitcoin’s decentralized design offers no such recovery option. As a result, lost Bitcoin is effectively removed from circulation, reducing the available supply of the cryptocurrency, which is capped at 21 million coins.

Even when Bitcoin is lost, it still technically exists on the blockchain—it’s just unusable without the private key. 

Think of it like a vault with a lost combination: the contents are still inside, but no one can get to them. This highlights a key feature of Bitcoin’s security and autonomy: there’s no central entity to step in and help recover lost keys, placing full responsibility on the user to manage them securely. Additionally, some Bitcoin is intentionally “burned” by sending it to addresses with no known private key, further shrinking the circulating supply. 

In short, lost Bitcoin is a real and irreversible risk. Well, if you were to ask its creator, he would say (and we quote) “Lost coins only make everyone else’s coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone.” Either way you look at it, it’s important to safeguard your private keys at all costs. 

How is the Number of Lost Bitcoin Calculated?

Knowing exactly how many Bitcoin have been lost isn’t straightforward, as lost coins don’t explicitly mark themselves on the blockchain. Instead, analysts estimate losses by studying patterns of inactivity and other indirect signs. Here are some of the main methods they use:

Dormant Address Analysis 

This method examines wallet addresses that have shown no activity for many years—usually five to ten or more. Coins in these inactive wallets are suspected to be lost because long-term inactivity often means the private keys are misplaced or the wallet’s owner has passed away. Using this approach, research in 2025 by companies like Chainalysis and River Financial estimated about 1.5 to 2 million BTC lost due to forgotten keys.

Unclaimed Mining Rewards

Early Bitcoin miners sometimes never moved their mined coins. Prominently, the mysterious creator of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, mined around 1 million BTC in Bitcoin’s early days (2009–2010) and has never moved them. These coins, plus other similarly inactive mined coins, account for substantial losses estimated at roughly 1 million BTC.

Burned Coins

Occasionally, Bitcoin holders deliberately send coins to addresses with no known private keys—known as “burn addresses”—effectively destroying these coins permanently. Though rare, these deliberate actions contribute to the overall lost Bitcoin count.

On-Chain Analytics and Heuristics

Firms like Chainalysis and Glassnode use sophisticated software to group addresses into wallets, analyzing transaction outputs (known as Unspent Transaction Outputs, or UTXOs) and wallet activity to make educated guesses about lost coins. They consider various factors, such as coins untouched since Bitcoin’s early years, to refine these estimates.

Despite these thorough methods, the final figures remain estimates because inactivity alone isn’t a guarantee that coins are truly lost. Owners may simply be holding (“HODLing”) their Bitcoin intentionally.

Is Bitcoin ‘Dust’ Also Lost Bitcoin?

“Dust” is a term for super tiny amounts of the cryptocurrency—so small that the transaction fees to spend them are often higher than their actual worth. Imagine having a few crumbs of Bitcoin that just sit there because moving them costs more than they’re worth. Meanwhile, “lost Bitcoin” refers to coins that are gone forever because the owner lost their private keys—the secret codes needed to access and spend them. 

Bitcoin dust actually refers to tiny amounts of Bitcoin, typically less than 0.00010000 BTC when expressed to eight decimal places, that are often too small to be worth spending due to transaction fees. In practice, amounts like 0.00000546 BTC or even as small as 0.00000001 BTC (1 Satoshi, Bitcoin’s smallest unit) can be considered dust, depending on fee economics.

Bitcoin Dust Chart Jan 2011-Jan 2024. Source. 

The chart above tracks the growth of Bitcoin dust from 2011 to 2024, showing a steady rise in total dust to 1,510.02 BTC and a sharp increase in dust UTXOs to 100.60 million by 2024, with a significant surge after 2018. The top dustiest address, a Huobi wallet, holds 12.47 BTC across 1,597,917 UTXOs.

Unlike dust, lost Bitcoin is completely unreachable, stuck in the blockchain with no way for anyone to use it. Dust isn’t technically lost because the owner can still access it with their private keys; it’s just not worth spending most of the time due to those tiny fees. If Bitcoin’s value shoots up, that dust might suddenly become worth the effort to move. 

On the flip side, truly lost Bitcoin is locked away forever—no private keys, no access, no hope. So, while dust might feel stuck, it’s not lost in the technical sense; it’s more of a practical hassle than a permanent goodbye.

Why Are These Lost Bitcoin Only Estimates?

The inherent limitations of blockchain data analysis mean the exact number of lost coins cannot be precisely determined. Wallet inactivity can occur for many reasons, not just loss. Some long-term holders purposely choose not to move their Bitcoin for strategic or personal reasons. Furthermore, occasional minor activity, like tiny incoming transactions (“dust” transactions), can complicate the accuracy of loss estimates. Analysts must therefore rely on statistical models and probabilistic reasoning, acknowledging margins of error.

Can Lost Bitcoin Ever Be Recovered?

Generally speaking, Bitcoin recovery is only possible if the lost private keys or seed phrases are rediscovered. Without these keys, recovery is impossible because Bitcoin uses robust cryptographic principles designed specifically to prevent unauthorized access or reversals.

However, there are a few scenarios where lost coins might be recoverable:

1. Discovering Forgotten Backups: Owners occasionally recover coins by finding lost wallets or forgotten backups (seed phrases written on paper, USB drives, old computers). Such recoveries are rare but not unheard of, as there some cases covered extensively online.
2. Professional Wallet Recovery Services: Companies specializing in wallet recovery can sometimes help if partial information remains available—for instance, if the owner remembers most of the seed phrase or password. These experts use specialized software and cryptographic techniques to attempt to regain access. Success rates are low, but these services provide a lifeline in select cases. Moreover, scammers prey on inexperienced users who have lost wallets by either impersonating representatives from these services and/or falsely claiming to be able to retrieve coins on their own. 
3. Preemptive Key Backup Solutions: Wallet providers, recognizing the seriousness of potential losses, now offer solutions to help users avoid losing keys. A prime example is Ledger’s very own Ledger Recover. 

Ledger Recover enables users to securely backup seed phrases through encrypted fragments distributed to trusted third-party custodians. If a user loses access, they can restore keys through an identity verification process. Services like Ledger Recover must be set up proactively—before a loss occurs—as they’re preventative measures, not retroactive fixes.

Protect Your Bitcoin Forever with Ledger

Lost Bitcoin changes the effective supply of Bitcoin and since Bitcoin can’t “print more BTC,” this increases the scarcity of the Bitcoin in circulation. Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto themselves once noted that these lost coins indirectly serve as a donation to the remaining users by reducing supply, thus potentially increasing the value of coins still in circulation.

The harsh reality of irreversible Bitcoin loss means one thing: you as a Bitcoin holder must prioritize secure private key management, have peace of mind when navigating the complex web3 landscape, and have the confidence to trust themselves with their self custody. 

Ledger offers all this and much more. 

Over a decade of experience, a battle tested security model, offline signing with private keys that never leave the EAL 6+ certified Secure Element chip (which has never been hacked), a vibrant and secure Ledger Live ecosystem, next-gen hardware devices with secure touchscreens, Clear Signing initiatives, and preventative services like Ledger Recover provide essential protection against crypto loss. Once lost, Bitcoin is gone forever, so why take that chance at all? 

Grab a Ledger today and experience crypto at ease!